St Petersburg · model version 0.1
Estimate value.
Promise no miracles.
A tool for pilot design and public discussion. Measured inputs, external coefficients, assumptions and outputs stay visibly separate.
Interactive model
Scenario, not forecast
Adjust three hypotheses. Results show what might happen only if the project’s effect is confirmed in a comparative study.
Calculation chain
643,233 × 35% × 1.25% × 10% = 281
Deaths and life-years are expected lifetime cohort effects, not a one-year result. The offset is neither profit nor a guaranteed cash saving. Health coefficients are transferred from a US Tips campaign model and have not been validated for Russia.
Where does 281 come from?
A calculation,
not a number from a paper.
4,659,653 adults × 13.804% estimated current smoking × 35% assumed effective reach × 1.25 percentage-point assumed additional quit attempts × 10% assumed 12-month conversion = 281.4 scenario sustained quits.
- PopulationPetrostat ↗ and Rosstat 2024 health survey ↗
- Campaign hypothesesTips impact study ↗ informs sensitivity, but is not transferred as Russian effect.
- Health coefficientsXu et al. ↗; external US model, not validated for Russia.
- = 281.4scenario sustained quits; only a local comparative evaluation can estimate the actual effect.
Model anatomy
Four kinds of number
Population, smoking, insurance
Petrostat, Rosstat 2024 health survey and the St Petersburg compulsory health insurance fund.
Reach and project effect
Pre-specified before the pilot and replaced with local estimates after comparative evaluation.
Health per sustained quit
US Tips evaluation coefficients. Transfer to Russia limits precision.
Scenario range
Not an actual lives-saved count or performance report.
Evaluation plan
Pilot first.
Attribution second.
- 01Pre-specify assumptions, outcomes and analysis.
- 02Use a control group or stepped geographic rollout.
- 03Separate exposure, support use, quit attempt and 12-month abstinence.
- 04Count participants lost to follow-up as smoking in the main analysis.
- 05Recalculate QALYs, offset and cost per quit from the actual budget.